747
AXNT20 KNHC 132034
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN DEC 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN AT 15/0000 UTC, LASTING THROUGH 15/1200 UTC, NORTHWEST OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 12-14 FT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: METEOFRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THE MADEIRA AND CANARIAS MARINE ZONES. FOR MADEIRA,
THE WARNING IS VALID THROUGH 13/2100 UTC, AND FOR CANARIAS, THE
WARNING IS VALID THROUGH 14/0000 UTC. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE AT:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
NORTH WINDS HAS GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE, LONG
PERIOD N SWELL IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE NORTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 35W, WITH PEAK SEAS TO 22 FT
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS N WITH 15-19 SEC
PERIODS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO START TO DECREASE TONIGHT,
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE AT:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 08N13W AND EXTENDS
TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N19W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 13W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
06N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE, EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF WHERE SEAS OF 1-2 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE
NW ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF ALONG 24N BY MON MORNING, AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT, PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT
ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. W OF 80W, MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6
FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A
MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
AT NIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON, ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE TUE MORNING, THEN
WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONT.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT PREVAIL E OF 35W. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 22N.
GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MON
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO
THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS BY MON MORNING, AND FROM 29N55W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE MORNING. LARGE N SWELL
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ELSEWHERE, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.
AL
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