146
AXNT20 KNHC 140511
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN DEC 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OF 12 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING, IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE BAHAMAS, NORTHWARD AND WEST OF 60W
THROUGH MON MORNING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
N WINDS HAS GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE, LONG PERIOD N
SWELL IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 45W THROUGH SUN MORNING, WITH 12
FT SEAS EXPANDING FARTHER WEST TO 52W BY EARLY MON. SEAS WILL
PEAK NEAR 22 FT NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS N
WITH 15-19 SEC PERIODS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE AT:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07.5N13W AND EXTENDS
TO 05.5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05.5N20W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 12N EAST OF 33W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. FARTHER WEST, A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAMPECHE BANK INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA, AND A SECOND TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, AND WEAK
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST, IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY, AS OBSERVED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SUN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN
MORNING. STRONG N WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 24N BY MON MORNING, AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUE THROUGH THU.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA, AND WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND 7 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, AS OBSERVED
VIA RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. STRONG E WINDS ARE NOTED
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, AND SEAS TO 10
FT ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN E
SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PASSAGES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A
MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N
BELIZE TUE MORNING, THEN WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLANTIC WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU TO BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND A SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NW ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR THIS FEATURE, NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 68W. WIDESPREAD ROUGH
SEAS IN E TO SE SWELL COVER MUCH OF THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN, WITH
SEAS OVER 12 FT IN N SWELL AND STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AFRICA. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 25N.
FOR THE FORECAST, A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS E OF NE FLORIDA, E OF 79W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDDAY
SUN, FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MON MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUN EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE
NW BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON MORNING, AND FROM
29N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE MORNING. LARGE N
SWELL WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ELSEWHERE, A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA IS ACCOMPANIED
BY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
ADAMS
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