945
AXNT20 KNHC 150451
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON DEC 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0450 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT IN A NORTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND INTO MON MORNING IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING OVER THE WATERS EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG A POSITION
FROM NEAR 31N74W TO INLAND CAPE CANAVERAL, FL. WIDESPREAD STRONG
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS IN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 25N75W THROUGH
EARLY ON MON. THE SWELL WILL REACH THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS IT MERGED WITH EAST
SWELL. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTH
TO NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 24W AND 46W, AND FROM 10N TO
30N EAST OF 24W ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS TO 13 FT BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.
THE SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM THE N TO NE WINDS AT A PERIOD OF
10-16 SECONDS. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS, THE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO
NEAR 50W BY EARLY MON BEFORE THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NE TO SW
GOING INTO TUE. FOR INFORMATION EAST OF 35W PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2. FOR
INFORMATION WEST OF 35W, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N24W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 03N35W TO 02.5N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02M TO 07N, AND WEST OF 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NEAR LA
PESCA, MX AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE BASIN
BEHIND IT. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHEAST
WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF THE FRONT PER LATEST
ASCAT PASS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE BASED
ON THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASS. THE LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BASIN AND EXIT THE GULF MON NIGHT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUE THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU EVENING AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
TO BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS AS RESULT, THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE SPEEDS, BUT CONTINUE AT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EAST
OF ABOUT 82W, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W. LOWER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE WEST
OF 81W. OTHERWISE, A TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF
13N, AND WEST OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION TO ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL NE OF THE
REGION. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MON, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE TUE MORNING, THEN WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
W ATLANTIC WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TO BRING A RETURN TO FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
A GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA, AND FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS EVENING, AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL, FLORIDA. NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N72W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH AND A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 62.5W AND 75.5W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE TROUGHS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF 29N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAIL NEAR THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT WEST OF THE TROUGHS,
EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 36N38W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS
SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS
SOUTH OF ABOUT 25N AND EAST OF 55W. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT PREVAIL WITH
THESE TRADE WINDS, AS NOTED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON.
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MON. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON MORNING, AND THEN STALL FROM 29N55W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE MORNING, THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. LARGE N SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS THU
THROUGH FRI.
KRV
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