133
AXNT20 KNHC 151801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON DEC 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS INITIATED GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W NORTH OF 30N. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 16 FT (3 TO 5 M). THESE GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY. LARGE NORTH SWELL WILL REACH THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS IT MERGES WITH EASTERLY
TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH
TO NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
CURRENTLY FROM 08N TO 21N BETWEEN 26W AND 51W, AND FROM 10N TO
21N EAST OF 24W, WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE 13 FT, PER RECENT SATELLITE
ALTIMETER DATA. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS SHOW NORTHERLY SWELL OF 14 TO
16 SECONDS MIXING WITH NORTHEAST SWELL OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS ACROSS
THIS AREA. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS,
THE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO NEAR 50W
THIS MORNING MON BEFORE THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NE TO SW GOING
INTO TUE. FOR INFORMATION EAST OF 35W PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO- FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2. FOR
INFORMATION WEST OF 35W, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N22W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 03N31W TO 04N40W TO 04N45W AND TO NEAR 03.5N51W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 08N
EAST OF 18W TO JUST INLAND THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-28W,
WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-34W AND WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AS A LARGE AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE, CONSISTING OF MULTI-HIGH CENTERS, OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED TO ALONG A POSITION FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO 23N90W AND TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE FAR WEST-
CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO
TO NEAR 24N. MOSTLY MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 11 FT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF FROM NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SWELL. LOWER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST
SWELL ARE OVER THE NW GULF, AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH EXITING THE GULF TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE THROUGH THU. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU EVENING,
AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FRI EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES INDICATE THAT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NORTH
OF ABOUT 16N OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 15N OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
BASIN, AND MOSTLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 15N. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.
SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
SEA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. LOWER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NORTH OF
18N WEST OF 81W AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE, A TROUGH
IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 20N87W TO
NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ARE NEAR THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF
THE SEA, SOUTH OF ABOUT 12N AND WEST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS AND
INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND ACROSS PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NE OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE TUE MORNING, THEN WILL STALL
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE W ATLANTIC WED THROUGH FRI TO BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
AN ONGOING GALE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
WATERS, AND FOR AN ONGOING SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OUTSIDE OF THE
AREAS OF NORTHERLY GALES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
FOLLOW THE FRONT. SEAS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 FT AS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES. A TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT ALONG A POSITION FROM
NEAR 31N62W TO 25N70W AND TO EAST-CENTRAL CUBA. THE COMBINATION OF
JET STREAM DYNAMICS ALOFT AND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ABOUT 27N AND BETWEEN 56W AND 64W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH, AND OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE
TROUGHS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF
29N. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SEAS
OF 9 TO 13 FT ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST. MUCH
LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE WITHIN THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS.
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36.5N32W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICS TO ITS SOUTH IS
SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
ABOUT 25N AND EAST OF 60W. SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT PREVAIL WITH THESE
TRADE WINDS, AS NOTED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 30N AND WEST
OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND QUICKLY
BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N57W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BY THIS EVENING, STALL FROM NEAR 30N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. LARGE NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI.
AGUIRRE
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