945
AXNT20 KNHC 161820 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE DEC 16 2025
CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 31N53W TO 24N69W. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
REVEALS AN AREA OF LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL GENERATING
SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT (3 TO 4 M) AT 10 TO 12 SECONDS NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS LARGE
SWELL WILL REACH THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AND MERGE WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL THAT IS
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS EAST PF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE AREA OF THESE SEAS WILL SHIFT SOME EASTWARD OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK, WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT (3 M). PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO
5N12W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 05N25W
TO 04N30W AND TO NEAR 03N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
08W-12W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-35W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
WESTERN CUBA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE THAT EARLIER FOLLOWED
BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING, BUT A SOMEWHAT
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF SOUTH OF
26N, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE PRESENT AS NOTED IN A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SOUTH OF
21N WEST OF 96W WHERE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FRESH WINDS ARE PRESENT.
SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR LOWER
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE NW GULF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT
ARE NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GULF SOUTH OF
24N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY WED. A RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF REGION THROUGH THU, WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE S
AND SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO SE
TEXAS FRI EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS HELPED WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. THE
HIGHEST OF THE WINDS IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE SEA, WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH OF THE
TRADES, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W, AND IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS
ALONG WITH INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND ACROSS PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE EAST SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA
WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE BASIN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND TO BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CORRECTED
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
WATERS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N53W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N69W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A
TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT FROM 27N59W TO 23N64W AND TO NEAR 20N68W.
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
THE FRONT IS BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTH OF ABOUT 28N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. OUTSIDE
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA, SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELL ARE
WEST OF A LINE FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN
150 NM N AND NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTEND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
AZORES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
SOUTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 55W, WHERE LARGE NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL
PRODUCING SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT (3 TO 4 M) REMAINS. MOSTLY MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OPEN WATERS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF ABOUT 60W. THE 10 TO 12 FT SEAS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED, THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AFTERWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF 65W THROUGH WED,
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF 65W BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE
WED. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE AREA WED THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA FRI. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST WATERS FRI, REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING, THE
QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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