597
AXNT20 KNHC 170443
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0443 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWEST N ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 28.5N55W
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS, THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER THU EARLY MORNING THROUGH FRI AS IT
LIFTS N OF OUR FORECAST REGION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 16 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION
THIS EVENT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO
04N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH OF 26N, AND WEST OF 91W. ELSEWHERE, A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS CONTROLLING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE IN THE SE GULF
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 85W, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE SEEN NEAR THE STRAITS. MODERATE
TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS
ARE 6-9 FT IN THE SE GULF, AND 2 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SE WATERS, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WED. A RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 32N WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF REGION THROUGH THU, WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE S AND SW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO FRI
EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED INLAND AND JUST OFFSHORE
NICARAGUA, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND ACROSS PANAMA.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST N OF THE BASIN HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OFFSHORE
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 5-7
FT IN THE S-CENTRAL PORTION, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 3-4 FT
N OF 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE BASIN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND TO BRING A
RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON A
DEVELOPING GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST N ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28.5N55W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE SE BAHAMAS, THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 29N AND W OF THE
FRONT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SEAS
OF 8-14 FT IN NW-N SWELL IS NOTED W OF THE FRONT TO 77W, WITH 4-8
FT OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A STRONG 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED N OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
33N34W WITH A RIDGE REACHING SW OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 27N44W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA AND FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS S OF 23N AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH RESULTANT 8-13
FT SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 31N AND THROUGH THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE E OF 20W, SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8-16 FT. REFER
TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE AT
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
AND 5-8 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
28.5N55W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS, THEN EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 28.5N. THE FRONT AND
THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING
W OF 65W. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THU. FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE ZONES
THROUGH WED EVENING, WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, NEAR 28N61W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND GRADUALLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI, REACH FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING, AND FROM
31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA BY SUN NIGHT.
KRV
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