003
AXNT20 KNHC 171757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N62W,
AND FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. N TO NE NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN A NW SEMICIRCLE FROM THE LOW CENTER EARLY
THU MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. PEAK SEAS UNDER THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT 13 TO 16 FT BY THU
EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION THIS EVENT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR
MONROVIA, THEN RUNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N15W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO 02N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 85 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 20W AND 36W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HOUSTON, TEXAS
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW EAST OF BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS TO ANOTHER 1012
MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FT ARE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN, WEST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA,
AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. A RIDGE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE GULF REGION THROUGH FRI, WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FRI EVENING, THEN
BEGIN TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE, A TRADE- WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE LEE OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE E SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND TO BRING
BACK MORE WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N50W TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, THEN
TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 100 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 7 TO 10 FT IN LARGE N SWELL ARE FOUND NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT
NORTH OF 23N, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
1030 MB HIGH NEAR 30N22W TO EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AT
23N65W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS
AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN LARGE NW TO N SWELLS. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 23N AND WEST O 35W, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT EXIST. GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING WEST OF 65W. LARGE NW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THU. THE WEAKENED STATIONARY
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION WILL FORM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS FRI, REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM
31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY SUN NIGHT.
CHAN
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