346
AXNT20 KNHC 180551
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU DEC 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 24N67W, THEN CONTINUES AS A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS,
LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE IN CONVECTION, WERE OBSERVED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PER A PAIR OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES
BETWEEN 0000-0100 UTC. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 30N60W LATER THIS MORNING.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE
LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS, BEFORE GRADUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA FRI NIGHT. PEAK SEAS UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AT 13 TO 18 FT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WELL AS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION
THIS EVENT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR
07N11W AND THEN RUNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO 07N30W TO 01N48W. CONVECTION NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ APPEARS TO ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 14N37W, WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING E OF 35W BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 18N.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR
NICARAGUA AND PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF FOG FORMING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COAST. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE FAR W GULF, WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN NEAR BOTH OF THESE TROUGH AXES. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF EAST OF 90W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-5 FT
PREVAIL W OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE SE U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION THROUGH THU, AND SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW ON THU
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NW GULF THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS BY FRI MORNING, FROM SW
FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO FRI EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE, A TRADE-WIND
REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA,
WITH AREAS OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA SEEING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE E SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE BASIN THU INTO THE WEEKEND TO BRING A
RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 24N67W, THEN CONTINUES
AS A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, A 1029 MB HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ACCORDINGLY, SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE N OF 25N TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 22W AND 52W, WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL REMNANT TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W
TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N60.5W THEN INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS IT
MOVES E-NE. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER THU THROUGH
EARLY FRI, BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI
AFTERNOON, REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT
MORNING, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SAT EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SUN
NIGHT.
ADAMS
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