895
AXNT20 KNHC 192324
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA, THEN RUNS WESTWARD TO NEAR 06N14W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N14W TO 03N30W TO 02N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W, AND
FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR FT MYERS, FLORIDA
TO 24N94W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES NW
OVER NE MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 22N, WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS S
OF THE FRONT TO 22N. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL S OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF
TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN AS THE COLD
FRONT WEAKENS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES WESTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS,
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA, INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OFFSHORE
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, IS
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS, WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
EAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE BASIN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN E TO SE SWELL IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY SAT, BEFORE
ROUGH SEAS REDEVELOP SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A
COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD FRESH NE WINDS WEST OF 70W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 29N56W. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A GALE CENTER. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE LOW, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W AND
53W. A SHEAR-LINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 22N60W TO 24N73W.
FARTHER W, A COLD FRONT IS OFF NE FLORIDA, AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W
TO NEAR MELBOURNE, FL. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TO ABOUT 70W. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 31N35W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ, CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 24N AND E OF
50W. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS JUST E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LOW INTO THIS
EVENING NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 60W, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF 64W, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT EXPECTED NORTH OF 27N THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA TO 70W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W AND WEAKEN FROM
WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING
AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY ON MON, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRONG NE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GR
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