985
AXNT20 KNHC 200454
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N12W THEN RUNS WESTWARD TO
NEAR 06N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N14W TO 03N30W TO 02N43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND
25W AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES TO 24N87W, WHERE
IT BECOMES AND STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES W TO JUST N OF
TAMPICO, MEXICO. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED. A SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATED NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BAY. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. TO THE S OF THE FRONT, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SW FLORIDA TO N OF
TAMPICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVES WESTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO CENTRAL AMERICA
HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT, LEAVING THE BASIN VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120
NM OFFSHORE NORTHERN COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT. FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NW BASIN, WHERE WINDS
ARE NE AT MODERATE OR WEAKER, AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN E TO SE SWELL IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY SAT, BEFORE
ROUGH SEAS REDEVELOP SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A
COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD FRESH NE WINDS WEST OF 70W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED AT 29N56W. FRESH TO
STRONG S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED E OF THE LOW, N OF 25N AND
E TO 50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXISTS IN THIS REGION.
WINDS W OF THE LOW HAVE DIMINISHED, BUT A BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 20N AND W TO 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR MIAMI, FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 26N, EASTWARD
TO 70W. N OF 28N, FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT...E TO 65W. WINDS ARE NW W OF THE FRONT, AND SW TO THE E OF
THE FRONT. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
IN THE E ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO THROUGH THE
CANARY ISLANDS, TO 27N25W, THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
AND ARCHES NW TO BEYOND 31N35W. FOR ALL WATERS E OF 50W, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES DOMINATE, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. THE
HIGHEST SEAS, UP TO 14 FT, ARE FOCUSED AROUND 22N38W, 28N28W, AND
N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC WATERS,
WINDS ARE FRESH OR WEAKER, AND SEAS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 29N56W WILL CONTINUE EAST OF 64W.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA TO 70W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY ON MON,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRONG NE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KONARIK
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