785
AXNT20 KNHC 201821
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT DEC 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC:
LARGE N TO NE SWELL IS GENERATING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12
TO 14 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 24W AND 44W. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT LATE TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION THIS EVENT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 07N16W.
AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N16W TO 05N30W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
33W AND 22W AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N TO 06N WEST
OF 15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN
UP TO 30 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATED WIDELY SCATTERED
AT THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE ENE TO SSE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
FOR THE ENTIRE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY FRESH E TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE
CAMPECHE BANK EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SUN INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PROPAGATES
WESTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ON MON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
PROGRESSES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. STRONG E WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS MON INTO
EARLY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TRADES AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E
TRADES WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ROUGH SEAS IN E SWELL WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N66W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 32N53W THROUGH A 1016 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N56W TO 25N60W. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. A COLD FRONT CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN AFRICA TO NEAR 27N31W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO E TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN
MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DOMINATE NORTH OF 20N AND
WEST OF 55W. FARTHER EAST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 35W OUTSIDE
THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG E TO SSE WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 7
TO 10 FT ARE FOUND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST
OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND 6
TO 8 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 22N THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY EARLY MON, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING
EXPANDING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF 70W
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL WATERS EAST OF 75W BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page