106
AXNT20 KNHC 210435
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN DEC 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W THEN
CONTINUES TO 07N17W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS
TO 05N25W AND 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
26W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS HAS
DISSIPATED, LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE NE. CLOSEST TO THE HIGH, LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 FT OR LESS ARE PRESENT IN THE NE GULF. IN THE SE BASIN,
GENTLE E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE ONGOING. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS HAS INCREASED
TO MODERATE SPEEDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 3
TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY FRESH E TO
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER
THE CAMPECHE BANK EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SUN INTO NEXT WEEK,
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PROPAGATES
WESTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ON MON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
PROGRESSES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. STRONG E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS MON
INTO EARLY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED, LEAVING THE BASIN
CONVECTION-FREE. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN, FRESH TRADES
DOMINATE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, AN EVENING
ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST, AND THESE WINDS
ARE LIKELY GENERATING ROUGH SEAS THAT ARE EXTENDING WEST AND
APPROACHING THE COAST OF PANAMA. CONDITIONS ARE MORE TRANQUIL IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, ROUGH SEAS IN E SWELL WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NE WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING SUN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LARGE N TO NE SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN
SLOWLY DECAYING TONIGHT, AND THE AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS HAS
DIMINISHED. THERE IS STILL WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IMPACTING THE
ENTIRE BASIN E OF 55W, AS WELL AS TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS S OF
20W ADJACENT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE HIGHEST SEAS, WHERE
LOCALLY 12 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING, ARE GENERALLY FROM 15N TO 27N, E
OF 44W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH ROUGH SEAS MAINLY CONFINED TO WATERS E OF 35W BY MON.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OF BERMUDA TO 28N68W, WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS. A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 72W FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE
TURKS AND CAICOS. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING ANY
SENSIBLE WEATHER ANYMORE, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT SURROUNDING THEM. FARTHER EAST, THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
25N60W HAS OPENED TO A TROUGH THAT NOW EXTENDS ALONG 58W FROM 24N
TO 30N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS TROUGH, N OF
28N AND EASTWARD TO 50W. FRESH S WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
FOR WATERS N OF THE ANTILLES TO 22N, FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE
ANTILLES, AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, GENERALLY
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE. SEAS IN THIS REGION HAVE BEEN DESCRIBED IN
THE INITIAL PARAGRAPH OF THIS SECTION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 22N THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY EARLY MON, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING
EXPANDING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS INTO THE
CENTRAL BASIN. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF 75W TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS MAY BE REINFORCED IN THE CENTRAL WATERS EAST OF 75W BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
KONARIK
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