549
AXNT20 KNHC 221042
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL, WITH
PERIOD OF 8 TO 12 SECONDS, GENERATED BY GALES N OF THE REGION WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS AND COMBINE WITH WIND-WAVES TO INDUCE VERY
ROUGH SEAS SE OF BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT, SPREADING E ACROSS
WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM 40W TO 70W DURING THIS PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOW CONFINED ENTIRELY INLAND OVER AFRICA.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO 03N35W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND 28W,
AND FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA, FLORIDA NW TO SE LOUISIANA.
ON THE SW GULF, A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE E MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE, THUS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TODAY. FRESH WINDS
OVER THOSE WATERS WILL REACH STRONG SPEEDS TODAY INTO TUE EVENING.
ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ROUGH TO 10 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL
PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH SAT, SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS IN THE LEE OF
CUBA, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THUS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE, E LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. NEW LONG-PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL AFFECT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS WED AND
THU, AND THEN AGAIN FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL ARRIVING STARTING TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING VERY ROUGH SEAS
TO PART OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO PORT ST LUCIE, FLORIDA AND IS
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N63W TO
24N75W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND
68W. THE AZORES HIGH OF 1026 MB LOCATED JUST S OF THE ISLANDS
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS E OF 40W ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE
FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
75W TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDWEEK WITH STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W.
RAMOS
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