067
AXNT20 KNHC 221631
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON DEC 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1631 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL, WITH
PERIOD OF 8 TO 12 SECONDS, GENERATED BY GALES N OF THE REGION WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS AND COMBINE WITH WIND-WAVES TO INDUCE VERY
ROUGH SEAS SE OF BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT, SPREADING E ACROSS
WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM 40W TO 68W DURING THIS PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N21W TO
02N34W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N
TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 19W, AND FROM 01S TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND
40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY DECAYING FRONT EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA, FLORIDA TO SE
LOUISIANA. ON THE SW AND W GULF, TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE E, CENTRAL, AND SE GULF. GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
GULF REGION TROUGH MID-WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NE GULF THU THROUGH FRI PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WIND FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ROUGH TO 10 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE
LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WED MORNING. OTHERWISE, A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS JUST E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT THAT WILL START TONIGHT, BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO
PART OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 28N80W AND IS FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO
CENTRAL CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W
AND 63W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NORTH OF OUR AREA
INTO 31N50W TO 26N58, THE A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 22N67W. THE AZORES
HIGH OF 1027 MB LOCATED S OF THE ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AND SUPPORTS MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS E OF 35W ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. A
SECOND COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDWEEK WITH
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
KRV
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