962
AXNT20 KNHC 231051
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE DEC 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED, WITH STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS BEHIND IT. SIGNIFICANT NW TO N SWELL,
WITH PERIOD OF 8 TO 12 SECONDS, GENERATED BY GALES N OF THE
REGION IS COMBINING WITH WIND-WAVES TO INDUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS SE
OF BERMUDA THAT WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N INTO WED
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 35W TO
67W DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W TO 03N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
03N27W TO 03N37W TO 02N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 19W, AND FROM 02S TO 02N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR SW GULF FROM N OF TAMPICO
TO THE OFFSHORES OF VERACRUZ, WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE SEAS ARE ROUGH.
WEST OF 90W, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF THROUGH TODAY, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF REGION TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE GULF THU THROUGH FRI
PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT, THE
COLOMBIAN LOW AND A COLD FRONT WITH TAIL REACHING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, HIGHEST OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W WHILE SEAS REMAIN IN
THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE
LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH SAT NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA.
OTHERWISE, LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND THE WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES, BY WED MORNING AND SUBSIDE LATE THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THAT WILL BRING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS ARE
ONGOING ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 23N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 45W. THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED
JUST TO THE S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N AND E
OF 45W ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH BETWEEN
THE COAST OF NW AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE
ROUGH TO 10 FT. IN THE TRADEWIND BELT S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND SEAS TO 7 FT
DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD REACHING THE SE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. AT THAT TIME,
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND APPROXIMATELY FROM 25N55W TO EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THEN, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 22N55W TO 20N74W
BY WED MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE N WATERS ON WED, AND EXTEND FROM 30N55W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
RAMOS
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