276
AXNT20 KNHC 231438
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE DEC 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED, WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS BEHIND IT. SIGNIFICANT NW TO N
SWELL, WITH PERIOD OF 8 TO 12 SECONDS, GENERATED BY GALES NORTH
OF THE REGION IS COMBINING WITH WIND-WAVES TO INDUCE VERY ROUGH
SEAS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF 22N INTO WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 12
TO 17 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 35W TO 67W DURING THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W AND THEN TO 03N25W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO 02N40W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01S TO 01N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N96W TO
21N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
E WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GULF, WHERE
SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF THROUGH TODAY, THEN MAINLY
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION TROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE
GULF THU THROUGH FRI PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND
FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
SUPPORTING STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, OFF CABO BEATA
ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA, AND OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, BY WED MORNING AND SUBSIDE LATE THU.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OR MARINE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THAT WILL BRING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 25N60W THEN BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND EAST OF 60W, STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE NE WINDS ARE
ONGOING ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 17 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF 60W, SOUTH
OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO
7 FT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 60W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 25N. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
NORTH OF 29N.
FARTHER EAST, 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 31N, EXCEPT FOR 8 TO 9 FT SEAS OFF NORTHWEST
AFRICA DUE TO N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N47W TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
REACHING THE SE WATERS LATER TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE N WATERS ON WED, AND
EXTEND FROM 31N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A THIRD COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRI.
CHRISTENSEN
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