513
AXNT20 KNHC 240453
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED DEC 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: VERY LARGE NW SWELL IS
COMBINING WITH WAVES GENERATED BY NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
INDUCING VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF WATERS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 42W AND 66W TONIGHT. THESE SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH WED, GRADUALLY DECAYING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF BERMUDA BY WED NIGHT, AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL GENERATED BY THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION STARTING ON THU AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N23W TO
04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 06N
BETWEEN 04W AND 15W AND FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA
DOMINATES. FRESH WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SE BASIN, WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE W OF 95W AND N OF 28N.
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF THU THROUGH SAT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS S OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE W
OF 70W AND 4-6 FT E OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
OFF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH
THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, BY WED MORNING AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE THU INTO FRI. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL REACH THE SAME REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THAT WILL BRING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH WED.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO N OF PUERTO RICO.
STRONG WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 57W, AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT W OF 57W. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT, SE OF A LINE FROM 31N55W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS. THEN, FARTHER NW, WINDS ARE LIGHT AS A QUICK-MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THOSE WATERS. SEAS ARE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WATERS, EXCEPT ALTIMETER REVELED SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO 22N48W IS ALSO
CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
SE OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE GENERALLY MODERATE OR LESS, EXCEPT
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OFFSHORE
MOROCCO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED. STRONG
WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND AFFECTING THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS E
OF 65W WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. HOWEVER, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE ON WED, EXTEND FROM 31N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS
BY THU MORNING AND EXIT THE REGION THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT, AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE
OFFSHORE WATERS. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS FRI MORNING AND EXIT THE NE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
SAT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW.
KONARIK
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