324
AXNT20 KNHC 241031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED DEC 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1020 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: VERY LARGE NW SWELL IS
COMBINING WITH WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG NNE WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO INDUCE VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 45W AND
65W THIS MORNING. THESE SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH TODAY, GRADUALLY DECAYING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF BERMUDA IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL GENERATED BY THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION STARTING ON THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO
04N37W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N
TO 07N BETWEEN 05W AND 16W, AND FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND
33W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN, THUS SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS IN THE SE GULF,
WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
SE GULF THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF THU THROUGH SAT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT, AND FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT. IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, THIS MORNING AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THU INTO FRI. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE SAME REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL THAT WILL BRING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO 23N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 21N60W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING IS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE SE WATERS TODAY. STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT AND AFFECTING THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF 60W WILL DIMINISH
AND MOVE E OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY, EXTEND FROM
31N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING AND EXIT THE REGION THU
NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT, AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE OFFSHORE WATERS. A THIRD COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS FRI MORNING
AND EXIT THE NE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SAT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW.
RAMOS
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