406
AXNT20 KNHC 242113
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU DEC 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: VERY LARGE NW SWELL IS COMBINING
WITH WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG NNE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO INDUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W AND 59W. ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVER THE WATERS N OF A
LINE FROM 23N73W TO 19N53W TO 30N38W. PEAK SEAS NEAR 14 FT WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
STORM FORCE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA HAS ENTERED THE FORECAST WATERS. A
NEW SET OF NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS STORM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE REGION STARTING ON THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO
04.5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04.5N19W TO 00N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE OVER THE SE GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF AND 2-4 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THU. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THU THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WIND FLOW WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE W OF
70W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL. E OF
70W, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH MON
OFF COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
PASSAGES LATE FRI INTO SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL/GALE WARNING.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N37W TO 24N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 20N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS NEAR 31N66W TO 30N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 30N EAST OF THE FRONT TO
69W. ELSEWHERE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
GENERALLY PREVAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE TAIL OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N50W TO NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N75W WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
27N AND EAST OF 75W THROUGH EARLY THU. LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE REGION EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. STRONG WINDS AND A NEW
GROUP OF LARGE REINFORCING SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, MAINLY
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THU. WINDS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THE AREA NORTH OF 30N SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FRI, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
SAT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF 70W. YET
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SAT, AND
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON.
AL
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