468
AXNT20 KNHC 251716
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU DEC 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALES AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 31N58W TO 26N70W TO 31N78W. GALE FORCE
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 63W THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS CAUSING 12
TO 18 FT SEAS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 69W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD HIGHER TO 12-20 FT AND SPREAD TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 69W
TODAY. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 10N14W, AND CONTINUES TO 08N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N
BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1025 MB
HIGH AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DOMINATING THE REST OF THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT AT
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
INTO SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST
GULF ON MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A ROBUST TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, LEE OF CUBA, NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND NEAR HISPANIOLA. GENTLE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH MON OFF
COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING INTO NORTHEASTERN PASSAGES
LATE FRI INTO SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N70W
AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY N OF 26N. LARGE SWELL IS
IMPACTING THE WATERS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH- CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N37W TO
27N43W AND TO 24N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH
OF 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 49W.
OUTSIDE THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE N OF 25N
BETWEEN 51W AND 75W. GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER AREA OF ROUGH SEAS IS NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 33W-64W,
WHILE MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING WHILE
WEAKENING. STRONG WINDS AND A NEW SET OF LARGE REINFORCING SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, COVERING THE WATERS EAST OF 70W THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 30N
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FRI BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
SAT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF
70W. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA LATE SAT INTO SUN, AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MON. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT.
ERA
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