936
AXNT20 KNHC 252331
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALES AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 24N65W TO 28N76W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 60W THROUGH
1800 UTC, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVING RECENTLY SHIFTED N OF 31N.
LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO 19 FT SEAS
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 69W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT
AND HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 25N TONIGHT,
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRI. A NEW PULSE OF N-NW SWELL IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N LATE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO PRODUCER ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND
GREATER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 10.5N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
THAT POINT TO 02N28W TO 03N37W TO 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07.5N BETWEEN
35W AND 60W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
NEAR 24N96W CONTINUES TO TRIGGER NEARBY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A 1024 MB HIGH JUST EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS IS DOMINATING
THE REST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
INTO SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NORTHWEST GULF ON MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A ROBUST TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TO
NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, LEE OF CUBA, NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. GENTLE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE OFF
COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE CONDITIONS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 24N65W TO 28N76W AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE NW WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT TO 60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY E OF 60N. LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL IS IMPACTING THE WATERS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AND BEYOND 55W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A BROAD AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH N OF 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W PREVAILS BETWEEN
THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER EAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.
OUTSIDE THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS 6 TO 10 FT DOMINATE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER AREA OF ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL IS
NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 32W-58W, WHILE MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY, WITH THE TRAILING END STALLING AND
DISSIPATING ALONG 22N THROUGH EARLY FRI. STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE
SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT EAST OF 65W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FRI BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SAT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF 70W. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA LATE SAT INTO
SUN, AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A
FOURTH FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT,
AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY LATE
TUE.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page