555
AXNT20 KNHC 260622
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N47W TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO 15 FT SEAS NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. THIS AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. HOWEVER, A NEW PULSE OF
N-NW SWELL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS
ARE GOING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SEAS TO BUILD BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND
63W EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS NEW AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TO BETWEEN 47W AND 60W BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MIGHT
BUILD EVEN HIGHER ON SUN AS YET A THIRD SET OF LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL ARRIVES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR SHERBRO ISLAND, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N19W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 05N19W ACROSS 03N40W TO JUST OFFSHORE
OF SURINAME AT 07N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 33W AND
42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO, A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE, A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR NEW ORLEANS IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF,
INCLUDING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO
SSE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF INTO SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. CONVERGENT
TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
EXIST AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR JAMAICA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MAINLY GENTLE NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO
4 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH
TUE OFF COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING ABOUT ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N47W TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, THEN CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR
AND UP TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT EAST OF 57W. PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THIS
BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 36W AND 46W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
OTHER THAN THE AREA OF ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 11 FT IN MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL EXIST
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 43W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST.
FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO
9 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL EXIST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. FOR
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO E WINDS WITH SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL ARE EVIDENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE ALONG 22N THROUGH EARLY FRI. STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE
SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT EAST OF 65W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FRI
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF 35W SAT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF 70W. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA LATE SAT INTO SUN,
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, AND WILL REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY LATE TUE.
CHAN
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