045
AXNT20 KNHC 260850
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI DEC 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N46W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N68W. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
IS PRODUCING 12 TO 16 FT SEAS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 65W.
THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT AND HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. A NEW PULSE OF N-NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
TO PRODUCE ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 07N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N19W TO 04N24W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W,
AND FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF, WITH MODERATE CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF,
AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF INTO SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUE. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING ABOUT AN ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N46W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND
N OF 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE.
ELSEWHERE E OF 45W, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS W OF 45W.
ASIDE FROM THE VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, ROUGH SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 26N72W TO 23N61W TO
30N46W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
ALONG 22N THROUGH EARLY TODAY. STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE SWELL
FOLLOWS THE FRONT EAST OF 65W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SAT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF 70W. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA LATE SAT INTO SUN,
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, AND WILL REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY LATE TUE.
AL
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