071
AXNT20 KNHC 262244
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT DEC 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2235 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N56W, WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
BASIN JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 22N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 27N AND
BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO LOCALLY GALE-FORCE
WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO 14 FT SEAS
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. ROUGH SEAS EXTEND SOUTH TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND WEST OF 40W. A NEW PULSE OF N-NW
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER AREA OF ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N17W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N17W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OFF VERACRUZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL, SW AND NW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF
NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE LARGE SWELL AREA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE EAST THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LARGE N SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL MIX
WITH EARLIER LARGE SWELL STILL COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 65W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE SAT, AND SWEEP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MON, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE
ALONG 21N. STRONG WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LARGE N SWELL FOLLOW THIS
FRONT ACROSS WATERS EAST OF 70W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THIRD COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, AND
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY LATE TUE, AND
FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE WED.
DELGADO
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