104
AXNT20 KNHC 270845
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT DEC 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N48W TO 27N67W. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING 12
TO 16 FT SEAS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 63W. A REINFORCING SET
OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT TO
MAINTAIN THE AREA OF ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W TO 05N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N19W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1019
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT,
ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
4-5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 27N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 28N WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM
THE VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
COVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W, AND N OF A LINE
FROM 20N65W TO 18N56W TO 30N35W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE FOUND S
OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF 55W
THROUGH EARLY SUN. LARGE N SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL MIX
WITH EARLIER LARGE SWELL STILL COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 65W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE TODAY, AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY MON, LEAVING A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE ALONG 21N. STRONG WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LARGE N SWELL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT ACROSS WATERS EAST OF 70W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON
NIGHT, AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY
LATE TUE, AND FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE WED.
AL
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