512
AXNT20 KNHC 271651
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT DEC 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N48W TO 27N67W. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING 12
TO 15 FT SEAS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A REINFORCING SET
OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT TO
MAINTAIN THE AREA OF ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 05N AND E OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE SLIGHT RANGE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY MON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF BY MON NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING
THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 26N60W, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
TO 28N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM
THE VERY ROUGH SEAS DISCUSSED ABOVE, ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND S OF 10N
BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER,
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE TODAY, AND
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MON, LEAVING A TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE ALONG 21N. STRONG WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL LARGE N SWELL FOLLOW THIS FRONT ACROSS WATERS EAST OF
70W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY LATE TUE, AND FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY LATE WED.
ERA
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