311
AXNT20 KNHC 250530
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JAN 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY THROUGH MON EVENING. STRONG
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
TAMPICO SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, AND GALES OVER THE WATERS
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ MON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN STARTING SUN REACHING 16 OR 17 FT OVER THE
SW GULF LATE ON MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE
TUE THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 01N25W TO 02N39W TO
00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N
BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N95W, WITH A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SE LA COAST AND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NE MEXICO COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 2-5 FT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO BLOW FROM THE NW AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
AND SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL
FLORIDA WESTWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI, THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 28N95W WITH A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDING
S-SW TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG 24N. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO LOUISIANA BY EARLY SUN PULLING THE WARM FRONT
N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN SUN THROUGH MON EVENING. STRONG REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT, GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF TAMPICO SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, AND GALES OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ MON AND MON
NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN
STARTING SUN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE TUE
THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP
ALERT WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT,
EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC IS
BRINGING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH SUN, THEN TO NEAR GALE FORCE
AFTERWARD INTO MIDWEEK. LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS LINGERING TO
8 FT THROUGH EARLY WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE MON AND BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BY LATE TUE INTO WED, WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE THU.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH ON WED, AND INCREASING BACK TO FRESH
TO STRONG ON THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WESTWARD TO INLAND
NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH, FL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT AND RUNS FROM 31N60W TO 27N73W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TOUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N57W TO 23N65W, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL. IN
THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC, LARGE LINGERING N SWELL WITH SEAS OF 12 TO
16 FT PERSISTS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE MOROCCO.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB LOCATED W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
NEAR 31N24W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. UNDER
THIS WEATHER PATTERN, A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 25N AND E OF
40W, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE OCCURRING S OF 22N AND W OF 40W, INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY
FROM NEAR 31N70W WESTWARD TO 31N80W AND THEN INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FL. A SURFACE TROUGH SE OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO JUST E OF THE NW BAHAMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE
WESTWARD ALONG 28N TO THE TROUGH ALONG 60W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS SUN EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WILL DEVELOP JUST N OF THE AREA EARLY ON MON. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO WEST CENTRAL
CUBA MON EVENING, FROM NEAR 31N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO
EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM
NEAR 31N49W TO 25N62W AND STATIONARY TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO
EASTERN CUBA WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 29N55W TO
25N66W AND TO NEAR 20N70W BY LATE THU AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NW FORECAST WATERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRECEDE AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS NEARING 12 FT.
ADAMS
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