471
AXNT20 KNHC 252307
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JAN 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA, FL
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N92W, TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB NEAR
21N96W AND TO INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. THE GALE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OFFSHORE TAMPICO UNTIL MON
MORNING AND OFFSHORE VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
REGION THROUGH MON REACHING 16 OR 17 FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N10W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL
NEAR 02.5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, ENHANCED BY A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT, IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 40W
AND 51W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA, FL SOUTHWESTWARD TO
26N92W, TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB NEAR 21N96W AND TO
INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE TAMPICO, AND ALSO FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE
VERACRUZ. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE STRONG TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS OF
6 TO 9 FT WHILE MAINLY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT N OF 25N AND 3 TO
5 FT S OF 25N BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
28N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MON EVENING. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FT, EXCEPT 5 TO 8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND SOUTH FLORIDA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW, ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO LARGE
E SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUE,
WHILE FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT.
LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS WEEK, WITH SEAS LINGERING TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY WED. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON AND BEGIN TO STALL
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS BY LATE TUE INTO WED,
WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH ON WED, AND
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WED NIGHT AND THU AS STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N GULF OF AMERICA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRI.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES, THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 31N45W TO 29N56W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 30N67W. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE OVER THE NW WATERS, OFFSHORE N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS NOTED
FROM 12N TO 24N E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT BASED ON SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT E OF
30W WHERE MAINLY ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
ARE SEEN. A BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM
NE SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY TO W AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER
THE NW FORECAST WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS AND TO WEST CUBA MON EVENING, FROM NEAR 31N56W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND TO EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N50W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS AND TO EASTERN CUBA WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE ON THU AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING FROM NEAR 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA
BY THU EVENING THEN STALL OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FRI S OF 26N.
GR
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