231
AXNT20 KNHC 260429
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JAN 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N95W THEN SOUTHWARD
AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE
FRONT. A RECENTLY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT
NORTHERLY GALES ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE TAMPICO, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR VERACRUZ BY SUNRISE. THESE GALE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OFFSHORE TAMPICO UNTIL MON
MORNING AND OFFSHORE VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH
MON REACHING 16 OR 17 FT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
FROM NW TO SE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 03N33W AND TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 08N AND WEST OF 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND SW GULF.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
VERACRUZ, MEXICO. THE IMPACTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE DESCRIBED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA, THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING THU AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE FAR
WESTERN GULF ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUE,
WHILE FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT.
LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS LINGERING TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON AND BEGIN
TO STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS BY LATE TUE INTO
WED, WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH ON
WED, AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WED NIGHT AND THU AS
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N GULF OF
AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 75W. FARTHER EAST, A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N44W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N58W AND THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N67W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SUSTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND AFRICA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. A BAND OF MULTILAYER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY TO
W AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NE ZONES FROM 28N55W TO 31N67W. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N57W SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER THE
NW FORECAST WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS AND TO WEST CUBA MON EVENING, FROM NEAR 31N56W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND TO EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N50W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS AND TO EASTERN CUBA WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE ON THU AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING FROM NEAR 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA
BY THU EVENING THEN STALL OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FRI S OF 26N.
DELGADO
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