603
AXNT20 KNHC 261044
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JAN 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING, AND EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N94W THEN SOUTHWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS MEXICO E OF COATZACOALCOS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT
NORTHERLY GALES WERE OCCURRING OFFSHORE TAMPICO, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR VERACRUZ BY SUNRISE. THESE GALE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OFFSHORE TAMPICO THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MON
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GULF REGION
THROUGH MON REACHING 16 OR 17 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03.5N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N19W TO 04N43W AND TO 00.5N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 08N
BETWEEN 13W AND 52W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND SW GULF.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO
20N94W THEN SOUTHWARD AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO E OF COATZACOALCOS.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS SPILLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AREA RADARS SHOW FINE LINES OF MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO FLORIDA, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS. GULF BUOYS SHOW SEAS HAVE REACHED 10 FT
ACROSS NW AND SW CENTRAL PORTIONS, OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
WINDS OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO ARE LIKELY 12-13 FT ALREADY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MON EVENING WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THU AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ BY FRI EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE BASIN FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO
NEAR 8 FT OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF BERMUDA WILL SLIDE SE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN,
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT. LARGE E SWELL
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SEAS LINGERING NEAR 8 FT THROUGH EARLY WED. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND BEGIN TO STALL
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
TO MOSTLY FRESH ON WED, AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WED
NIGHT AND THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE N GULF OF AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N54W AND EXTENDS A
BROAD RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS, SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1011 MB LOW CENTER OF
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW CENTER SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT NORTH OF
28N AND WEST OF 75W. FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N39W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
28N50W AND THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N63W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL ARE
FOUND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SUSTAINS MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS 7 TO 10 FT
SOUTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND AFRICA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL. A BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM
NE SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY TO W AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE
NW FORECAST WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA MON EVENING, FROM NEAR 31N57W TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N55W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND TO EASTERN CUBA WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO
N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE ON THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI MORNING, BEFORE STALLING N OF 24N FRI NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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