825
AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JAN 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: AS OF 2100 UTC, A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG TO
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO
16-17 FT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT NORTHERLY GALES WERE OCCURRING
OFFSHORE TAMPICO, AND ALSO OFFSHORE VERACRUZ WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WERE NOTED. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INLAND OF
PUERTO VERACRUZ SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND OFFSHORE OF
VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM NW TO SE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ BY FRI EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR VERACRUZ, IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY FRI NIGHT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N76W
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
OF E FLORIDA, FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST WITHIN THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY
LATE TUE INTO WED. AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN, THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WILL TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NORTHMEN
HONDURAS, WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPORTING MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE, AND IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE TUE INTO EARLY WED, AND WELL AS IN NORTHERN HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N16W TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 04N BETWEEN
24W AND 36W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE ITCZ OVER NE BRAZIL.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND SW GULF.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS SPILLING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT TO PRODUCE A BLANKET OF
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THAT THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, MAINLY
SOUTH OF 24N, AND STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 14 FT AT BUOY 42055 IN
THE SW GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
SE OF BERMUDA, HAS RETREAT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENTLY, GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY IN THE GENERALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW PART
OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA, AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO LARGE E SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, SUPPORTING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PULSE TO
STRONG AT NIGHT. LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE, WITH SEAS LINGERING NEAR 8 FT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE INTO
WED. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH ON WED, AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG WED NIGHT AND THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N GULF OF AMERICA. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THU NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N45W SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING
EAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N30W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 27N50W WHERE
IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 29N60W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, SPECIFICALLY SOUTH OF 22N, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NW PART OF OUR WATERS. FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE ARE LIKELY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT, FROM NEAR 31N54W TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING, THEN BECOME
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N55W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA WED EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENTER
OUR WESTERNMOST WATERS ON SAT.
GR
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