562
AXNT20 KNHC 271041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE JAN 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT, AND
EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BELIZE. 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SW
LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT, FORCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN, EXCEPT ACROSS NW PORTIONS, WHERE MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL. NW GALES NEAR VERACRUZ HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT, TO AROUND 35 KT, WHERE SEAS ARE 16-18 FT, AS CONFIRMED
BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT
AND HIGHER PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE, AND NEAR THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GALES OFF OF VERACRUZ ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT BY SUNRISE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 31N69W SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW
GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND IS FORCING STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NORTHERLY GALES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT NEAR
AND OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA TO THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA OVER AND EAST
OF THE GULFSTREAM, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
BY SUNRISE. SEAS IN THIS AREA AREA ARE 10-13 FT IN N SWELL MOVING
AGAINST THE GULFSTREAM CURRENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NEAR
31N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA WED EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE
OF THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND FORECAST TO STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS
BY LATE TODAY INTO WED. AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WILL
TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
NORTHERN HONDURAS, WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPORTING MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE, AND IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE TUE INTO EARLY WED, AND WELL AS IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS.
PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N22W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N22W TO 00N34W AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SOUTH OF 06N AND BETWEEN 08W AND 51W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN AND
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT, AND EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BELIZE.
1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT, FORCING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN, EXCEPT ACROSS NW
PORTIONS, WHERE MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS OF 8 FT AND
GREATER ARE GENERALLY S OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO
28N88W TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS
OF 10-12 OFFSHORE OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. PEAK SEAS ACROSS
THE BASIN OF 15-18 FT ARE OVER THE SW GULF ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF
GALES OFF OF VERACRUZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
TODAY THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
VERACRUZ BY FRI EVENING AND MOVE SE OF THE BASIN SAT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WITH GALE-
FORCE WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT, EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SOUTH CENTRAL BELIZE. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30
KT AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DEPICTED BY
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 10-12 FT ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SLIDE E-SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE N OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED, WHILE FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH THU. LARGE E SWELL OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN WILL MOVE SE TODAY AND BEGIN TO
STALL AND WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS THIS EVENING
THROUGH WED. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE
BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH WED MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N GULF OF AMERICA. MAINLY
MODERATE N WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN SAT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING
OFF NE FLORIDA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND
INTO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 60W AND NORTH OF 28N. THE REST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N40W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN A MIX OF E AND N SWELL ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 25N AND
EAST OF 65W TO 30W. A COLD FRONT IS FOUND SE OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH, FROM 31N20W TO 28N35W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.
IN THE FAR NE ATLANTIC, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF IRELAND IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE AREA NORTH
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EAST OF 25W. NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD, PRODUCING SEAS OF
8-16 FT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 55W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
31N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA WED EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THU, WHEN NEW HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC
AND FRESHEN WINDS BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THROUGH THU EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
WATERS ON SAT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC SAT THROUGH SUN.
STRIPLING
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