571
AXNT20 KNHC 271502
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JAN 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THU, WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND COASTAL BELIZE. IN PARTICULAR, STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE HILLY TERRAIN OVER NORTHWEST HONDURAS MAY CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH LATE THU IMPACTING VARIOUS COMMUNITIES TO INCLUDE TELA,
PUERTO CORTES, AND SAN PEDRO SULA. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 00N35W AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
04N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST
OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE EARLIER
THIS MORNING OFF VERACRUZ IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF, BUT STRONG TO
NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
IN ADDITION, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE STILL 10
TO 13 FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF, WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER MOST
AREAS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 27N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SUBSIDING QUICKLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HOWEVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ACTIVE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF SOUTH OF 22N. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PERSIST ELSEWHERE EXCEPT WHERE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW HAS CLEARED THE
SKIES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO VERACRUZ BY FRI EVENING AND MOVE SE OF THE BASIN SAT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WITH GALE-
FORCE WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT NORTH OF THE
FRONT, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FARTHER SOUTH,
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACTIVE OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA MAINLY BETWEEN CARTAGENA AND SANTA MARTA, WITH 7 TO 9 FT
SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED, WHILE
FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH
THU. LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS THIS EVENING THROUGH WED.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY FRESH WED MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. MODERATE N WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. A NEW STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SAT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N33W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO TO JUST NORTH OF
THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 28N25W. LARGE NW SWELL OF 12 TO 15
FT FOLLOW THE FRONT EAST OF 40W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE
NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NE TO E
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
31N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING,
THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N55W
TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA WED EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MEANDER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THU, WHEN NEW HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC
AND FRESHEN WINDS BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THROUGH THU EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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