187
AXNT20 KNHC 272302
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JAN 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH LATE THU, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND COASTAL BELIZE.
IN PARTICULAR, STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE HILLY TERRAIN OVER NORTHWEST
HONDURAS MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MORE THAN
8 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THU IMPACTING VARIOUS COMMUNITIES
TO INCLUDE TELA, PUERTO CORTES, AND SAN PEDRO SULA. MARINE INTERESTS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE FOLLOW
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N20W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 00N33W AND TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA DOMINATES THE
GULF WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
IN ADDITION, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF ALL THE WAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT SEAS OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF 27N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SUBSIDING
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HOWEVER. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA WHERE WHERE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
HAS CLEARED THE SKIES.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WED. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO VERACRUZ BY FRI NIGHT AND MOVE SE OF THE BASIN SAT EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT,
WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT MORNING,
AND S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SAT NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH
TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACTIVE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. ABUNDANT PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST W OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CLOUDINESS COVERS HONDURAS, BELIZE,
MOST OF GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW IS NOTED PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WED. FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT
NIGHT THROUGH THU. LARGE E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH THU, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO FRESH BY WED MORNING. STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING INTENSIFIES. A NEW STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN BY LATE SAT, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN CUBA. FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
PER ALTIMETER DATA. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
ARE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N32W. FARTHER EAST, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS
TO 28N23W. LARGE NW SWELL OF 12 TO 15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT EAST
OF 40W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NE TO E SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND
EAST CUBA WED EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH THU, WHEN NEW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND FRESHEN WINDS
BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THROUGH THU EVENING. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT. ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND, INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON
SAT NIGHT.
GR
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