800
AXNT20 KNHC 280437
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JAN 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH LATE THU, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND COASTAL BELIZE.
IN PARTICULAR, STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE HILLY TERRAIN OVER NORTHWEST
HONDURAS MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MORE THAN
8 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THU IMPACTING VARIOUS COMMUNITIES
TO INCLUDE TELA, PUERTO CORTES, AND SAN PEDRO SULA. MARINE INTERESTS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE FOLLOW
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 01N30W AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03S39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N40W TO 02S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM SOUTH OF 07N AND
BETWEEN 31W AND 48W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER,
ROUGH SEAS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA WHERE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW HAS CLEARED THE SKIES.
FOR THE FORECAST, 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF
STATES MAINTAINS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE NW TO SE THROUGH WED. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ BY FRI
NIGHT AND MOVE SE OF THE BASIN SAT EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WITH GALE-FORCE
WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT MORNING, AND ALSO DEVELOP
S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE BAY ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
FORCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO NEAR 65W WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING. FRESH WINDS
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AREA THROUGH THU, THEN
BEGIN WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO
FRESH BY WED MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE N STRENGTHENS. A NEW STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW BASIN BY LATE SAT, WITH STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO EASTERN CUBA. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
26N27W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 23N AND EAST OF 60W.
IN THE NE ATLANTIC, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
MOROCCO WESTWARD TO 29N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SPREADS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 40W.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 60W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA WED EVENING, THEN WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH THU. NEW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND FRESHEN WINDS
BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THU THROUGH THU EVENING. THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT. ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND, INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SAT EVENING
DELGADO
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