545
AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JAN 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EXTENDING FROM THE E COAST OF CUBA TO
INLAND PORTIONS ALONG THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER, WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THU, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND
COASTAL BELIZE. IN PARTICULAR, STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE HILLY TERRAIN OVER
NORTHWEST HONDURAS, MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS
OF MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THU, IMPACTING
VARIOUS COMMUNITIES TO INCLUDE TELA, PUERTO CORTES, AND SAN PEDRO
SULA. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE
AWARE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID WEEK. PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N17.5W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17.5W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 47W FROM 07N TO THE EQUATOR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM SOUTH OF 07N AND
BETWEEN 14W AND 50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE SE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE STILL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHILE SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS, WHERE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
CLEARED THE SKIES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF TODAY BEFORE
NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NW GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND
SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU, WHICH WILL FRESHEN WINDS
ACROSS THE SE GULF. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND
REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ BY FRI NIGHT AND MOVE
SE OF THE BASIN SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL FORCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT
MORNING, THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EAST COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, AND INLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT OVER
MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
TO 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N GULF OF AMERICA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL INDUCE
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND FORCE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD, REACHING FROM E CUBA TO THE SE
COAST OF NICARAGUA THU MORNING, THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN
FROM E CUBA TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-PANAMA BORDER THU EVENING
THROUGH FRI. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
BASIN SAT MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, MERGING WITH THE OLD
LINGERING FRONT FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA SAT EVENING, THEN
REACH FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SUN
EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO THE EAST COAST OF CUBA. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL
EAST OF 75W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
ARE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1024
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N27W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 22N AND EAST OF 60W, WHERE SEAS
ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED E AND N SWELL.
IN THE NE ATLANTIC, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
MOROCCO WESTWARD TO 29N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SPREADS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 40W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EXTENDING
INTO CUBA WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM
NEAR 28N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA THIS EVENING, THEN
WILL MEANDER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THU. NEW HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC
AND FRESHEN WINDS BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THU THROUGH THU
EVENING. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS ON SAT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, INDUCING A
LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS N
OF 24N SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING, AND FROM 31N62W TO
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING.
STRIPLING
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