668
AXNT20 KNHC 281630
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JAN 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING FROM E COAST OF CUBA TO
INLAND PORTIONS ALONG THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS
BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MOISTURE TO PREVAIL IN THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THU, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND COASTAL BELIZE,
AND ISOLATED 4+ INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND
NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N18W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN
13W AND 30W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST MAINTAINS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE SEAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS, WHERE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW HAS CLEARED THE SKIES.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF TODAY BEFORE NEW HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NW GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU, WHICH WILL FRESHEN WINDS ACROSS THE SE
GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ BY FRI NIGHT AND MOVE SE OF THE BASIN
SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FORCE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR VERACRUZ LIKELY TO BEGIN SAT MORNING, THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS TO OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVEN EXPECTED OVER THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AREA THROUGH THU.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EAST COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, AND INLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS RESULTING IN FRESH
TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N GULF OF
AMERICA BEGINS TO MOVE E THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND FORCE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD,
REACHING FROM E CUBA TO THE SE COAST OF NICARAGUA THU MORNING,
THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-
PANAMA BORDER THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN SAT MORNING AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, MERGING WITH THE OLD LINGERING FRONT FROM E CUBA TO
CENTRAL PANAMA SAT EVENING, THEN REACH FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SUN EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 22N69W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO EAST COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL EAST OF 74W. FRESH SW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N30W.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 22N AND EAST
OF 60W, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED E AND N SWELL. IN THE NE
ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 27N BETWEEN 15W-35W. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N55W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS AND EAST CUBA THIS EVENING, THEN WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND FRESHEN WINDS BEHIND
THE LINGERING FRONT THU THROUGH THU EVENING. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SAT.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS N OF 24N SAT EVENING THROUGH
SUN EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN
CUBA SAT EVENING, AND FROM 31N62W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN
EVENING.
ERA
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