423
AXNT20 KNHC 290407
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JAN 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO PREVAIL IN
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU, WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND COASTAL BELIZE, AND ISOLATED 4+ INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
HONDURAS WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL IN THE AREA THROUGH TODAY.
PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 01N35W AND 00N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER ONE IN THE SW
GULF SUPPORT SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS VERY LIGHT. THE GULF
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT FORCES
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT IN
THE EASTERN AND SE GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STALLED COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT
REACHES FROM PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO TAMPICO, MEXICO BY FRI
EVENING. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN FRI AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF BASIN SAT, AND USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT, AND POSSIBLY OFF VERACRUZ IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE GULF SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVEN EXPECTED OVER THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AREA THROUGH THU.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE N GULF OF AMERICA IS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS
NW PORTIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
TONIGHT THROUGH THU, AND FORCE IT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING
FROM E CUBA TO THE SE COAST OF NICARAGUA THU MORNING, THEN STALL
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA- COSTA RICA
BORDER THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW BASIN SAT MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
MERGING WITH THE OLD LINGERING FRONT FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA
SAT EVENING, THEN REACH FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA BY SUN EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE N WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF 26N. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 35W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 30N AND WEST OF 65W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 27N28W THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 60W.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 40W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND
FRESHEN WINDS BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT THU THROUGH THU EVENING,
AND NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SAT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND,
INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY GALE- FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS N OF 24N SAT THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING, AND
FROM 31N62W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING.
DELGADO
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