146
AXNT20 KNHC 291703
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JAN 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT: A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA.
THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW, IS ALLOWING FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO PREVAIL IN THE AREA. PERSISTING RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND E NICARAGUA, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST, THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND NEAR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
AREA THROUGH LATER TODAY. PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE DETAILS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES IS SHIFTING EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO
N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT REACHES FROM
PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY FRI EVENING.
THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN FRI THROUGH SAT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF BASIN SAT, AND USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE-FORCE NEAR
VERACRUZ SAT MORNING, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT THROUGH SAT
EVENING, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA.
OF NOTE: WITH DE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT, A POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING COLD SNAP IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S COULD REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS MIAMI DADE COUNTY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST, AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN
05W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 04N
BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE SW GULF, EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB LOCATED OVER THE SE OF THE UNITED STATES
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM 23N98W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN AREA
OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS, IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH, THE
TROUGH, AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF,
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHERE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 6
FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
IS SHIFTING EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT REACHES FROM PANAMA
CITY, FLORIDA TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY FRI EVENING. THE
LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN FRI THROUGH SAT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF BASIN SAT, AND USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE-FORCE NEAR
VERACRUZ SAT MORNING, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT THROUGH SAT
EVENING, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
A LINGERING FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE SE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF AMERICA SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY START MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL
HAPPEN AHEAD OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING, MERGING WITH THE OLD
LINGERING FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN PANAMA SAT EVENING,
FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN
EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA MON EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AT 27N61W, WHICH IS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N, AND FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST REGION IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
NEAR 28N28W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARD THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE FOUND SOUTH OF
23N AND EAST OF 60W. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SPREADS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE
REACHING THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND FRESHEN WINDS
BEHIND THE LINGERING FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND NUDGE THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SAT MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC SAT
THROUGH SUN, INDUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS COVERING THE LOCAL WATERS N OF 23.5N, AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS, SAT THROUGH SUN EVENING, BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA SUN
NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N73W TO EASTERN CUBA
SAT EVENING, FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 27N55W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO MON
EVENING.
GR
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