616
AXNT20 KNHC 301735
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JAN 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW
GULF, AND EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT REACHES FROM PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA
TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH SAT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AS IT EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN ON SAT, AND USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GULF THAT WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE-FORCE
NEAR VERACRUZ TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF SAT THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC
SAT THROUGH SUN, BECOMING QUITE POWERFUL AND INDUCING A VERY LARGE
AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS COVERING THE LOCAL WATERS N OF
ABOUT 24N AND JUST E OF FLORIDA SAT THROUGH SUN EVENING, BEFORE
LIFTING N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD PEAK
AS HIGH AS 12 FEET ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR
31N73W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING, FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN
HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND STALL FROM BEAR
27N55W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO MON EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N AND E
OF THE BAHAMAS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR SAT AND BEYOND, AND PREPARE TO
EXECUTE AVOIDANCE PLANS FROM THESE CONDITIONS.
OF NOTE: WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, A POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING COLD SNAP IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SUN, MON AND
TUE MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI
DADE COUNTY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
23W-33W.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST, AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W, AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 02N20W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 01N30W TO 00N51W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
GULF OF AMERICA...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF, AND EXTENDS FROM A
1019 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLE
ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND RUNS FROM 30N86W TO
23N86W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF THE VERACRUZ AREA, AND
OVER MOST OF THE GULF REGION N OF 23N AND W OF 84W. MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 15Z, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 11N81W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 19N80W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOW/TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W OF TROUGH. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN THIS AREA. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE, WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS, IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGES. ELSEWHERE, LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE SEEN.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN PANAMA SAT EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA
SUN EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA BY EARLY TUE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SAT AFTERNOON.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED SHOWERS, ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT AFFECTING MOST OF CUBA,
SOUTH FLORIDA, THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS W OF
60W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB LOCATED NEAR 28N72W DOMINATES THE
WATERS W OF FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS S OF 25N
AND W OF 70W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N25W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N AND E OF THE
FRONT TO ABOUT 40W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IS
OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 21N E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N AND E OF 60W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE REACHING THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page