453
AXNT20 KNHC 310009
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JAN 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST LATER TONIGHT, IT WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO REACH STRONG
TO GALE- FORCE OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 13 FT. THE LOW WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MERGE WITH A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL
BUILD TO BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FT UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC
SAT THROUGH SUN, BECOMING QUITE POWERFUL AND INDUCING A VERY LARGE
AREA OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS COVERING THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH
OF ABOUT 24N AND JUST EAST OF FLORIDA SAT THROUGH SUN EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MOST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 12 FEET ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING, FROM
31N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
STALL FROM NEAR 27N55W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO MON EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR SAT AND
BEYOND, AND PREPARE TO EXECUTE AVOIDANCE PLANS FROM THESE
CONDITIONS.
OF NOTE: WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, A POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING COLD SNAP IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN SOUTH FLORIDA. NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SUN, MON AND
TUE MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI
DADE COUNTY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON BOTH EVENTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR MONROVIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AND CONTINUES ACROSS 01N30W TO NEAR THE
AMAZON DELTA AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON A GALE WARNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1018 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 80 NM NORTHWEST AND 120 NM SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAUSING
SIMILAR CONVECTION AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO NW WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST. THESE FEATURES ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS ALSO INDUCING SIMILAR WEATHER AT THE
EASTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, AND OFFSHORE WATERS
OF NICARAGUA. MAINLY MODERATE N TO ENE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO ENE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA BY EARLY MON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING FOR
A GALE WARNING.
A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N48W TO JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
PATCHY RAIN ARE FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1016 LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AT 31N73W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. .REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NW TO NE TO SW WINDS AND 5
TO 9 FT SEAS IN MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL ARE FOUND BEHIND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. GENTLE WINDS WITH 7 TO 11
FT SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT TO 20N AND
50W. FARTHER EAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
TO SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL ARE PRESENT. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 03N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT. GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N25W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N AND E OF THE
FRONT TO ABOUT 40W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IS
OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 21N E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N AND E OF 60W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE REACHING THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
CHAN
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