789
AXNT20 KNHC 310439
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JAN 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0435 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO APALACHICOLA,
FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO 26N89W AND TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, EXITING
THE BASIN SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NE WHILE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT AS ANOTHER
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SURGES ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE
FORCE NEAR VERACRUZ FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT, AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT, WITH ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER THE NE GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG AND POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC SAT THROUGH SUN,
BECOMING QUITE POWERFUL AND INDUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF WESTERLY
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY RISING SEAS COVERING THE
WATERS N OF ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 60W SAT THROUGH SUN EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING, FROM NEAR
31N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
STALL FROM NEAR 26N55W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO MON EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E ROUGHLY ALONG 29N NEXT WEEK.
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR SAT AND BEYOND, AND
PREPARE TO EXECUTE AVOIDANCE PLANS FROM THESE UPCOMING RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON BOTH EVENTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 01N35W AND TO 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN THE SW AND EASTERN GULF WATERS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF EARLY WED AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN
GULF BY LATE WED..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF
CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE TROUGH TO
84W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERN WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING, THEN OVER
SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN
EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA BY EARLY MON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. BY EARLY TUE, FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN W OF A
LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NE COLOMBIA ALONG WITH SEAS TO
NEAR 12 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE ON
WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN THE W ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE FOUND
BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT.
FARTHER EAST, A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W
TO THE SE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
FOUND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TO 35W AND NORTH OF 27N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 30N26W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, NW SWELL IS PRODUCING
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE AND EAST OF 35W AND
ALSO NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND EAST OF 65W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
DELGADO
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