532
AXNT20 KNHC 010023
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN FEB 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS 31N78W AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NW WINDS
AND SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE PRESENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AT THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER AWAY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE-FORCE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, THEN BY MID-
MORNING AT THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM WARNING:
AN STRENGTHENING 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 28N71W. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A 1020 MB HIGH
EAST OF BERMUDA IS GENERATING GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 10
TO 12 FT SEAS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. THIS AREA OF
GALE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE
LOW OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ACROSS 31N78W AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AS THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, IT WILL BRING GALE
TO STRONG-GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD AND BETWEEN 74W AND THE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FT UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 24N AND 70W
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, PEAKING AT STORM FORCE NEAR 30N71W AND AT
20 TO 23 FT. AS THE DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD.
AFTERWARD, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MARINERS AT BOTH THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE DANGEROUS SITUATION, AND PREPARE
TO EXECUTE AVOIDANCE PLANS. SMALLER VESSELS ARE HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
TO STAY IN PORT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON BOTH EVENTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
KAMSAR, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N22W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 03N22W ACROSS 01N35W TO OVER THE AMAZON DELTA AREA, BRAZIL.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR AND UP TO 130 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N WINDS AND SEA
OF 10 TO 13 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT PREVAIL FOR THE WESTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SURGES ACROSS THE
GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE GULF SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WED
AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN GULF BY WED
AFTERNOON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 75 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR THE
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.
CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED AT THE EASTERN BASIN. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE CENTRAL BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL OVERTAKE THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO
PANAMA LATE TONIGHT, AND FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA BY SUN EVENING. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BY MON. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. BY
EARLY TUE, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF A
LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL
CUBA ALONG WITH SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. A 1006 MB
LOW PRES IS ANALYZED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N71W, WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 71W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALSO BY AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDING ALONG A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM BRANCH THAT PASSES OVER THAT
PART OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
BETWEEN 64W AND 74W, WITH ROUGH SEAS. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N51W TO 27N61W. SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N23W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
CHAN
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