595
AXNT20 KNHC 011131
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN FEB 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC STORM WARNING: A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE TO 31N71W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO EAST CENTRAL CUBA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE STORM
CONDITIONS NORTH OF ABOUT 24N. SEAS PEAKING TO AROUND 28 FT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 12 FT
AND GREATER COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF ABOUT 26N AND BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS TUE BEFORE STALLING
AND WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT SHIFTS WESTWARD WED THROUGH THU.
SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE STARTING AT
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD
NEAR 29N. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN,
INCLUDING OUTSIDE OF THE STORM AND GALE CONDITION AFFECTED ZONES,
DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON BOTH EVENTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA
COAST NEAR KAMSAR, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N22W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 03N30W TO 02N40W AND TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN
60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W AND 29W, AND WITHIN 30 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RECENT COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE GULF IS BRING NEAR GALE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS EAST OF 89W,
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. GALE
FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 ARE NEAR THE NE GULF COAST
REGION. BOTH BUOY AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SEAS OF 10
TO 16 FT S OF 27N EAST OF 91W, AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT S OF 27N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. LOWER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF
91W. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS INFILTRATING THE BASIN IS LEADING
TO THE PRODUCTION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST
OF ABOUT 93W. OVERCAST LOW STRATUS TYPE CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES
ARE EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 25N97.5W TO 20N94.5W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO
8 TO 12 FT TODAY AS THE WINDS THERE DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS
ELSEWHERE WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF
WED, REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN GULF BY WED
AFTERNOON, AND FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON, THEN TO SE OF THE BASIN BY EARLY
THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 18N81W
AND TO ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TO JUST INLAND
SOUTHERN BELIZE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. TO THE
EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO 15N74W
AND TO NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AND COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
TROUGH THIS MORNING AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NEAR SOUTHERN PANAMA, AND REACH FROM PUERTO RICO TO NE COLOMBIA BY
THIS EVENING. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM EASTERN PUERTO
RICO TO THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF VENEZUELA MON AND MON NIGHT.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT. BY EARLY TUE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO NE COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG WITH SEAS TO NEAR 12
FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON WED
AND FURTHER ON THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON ONGOING
STORM CONDITIONS FOR SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORM WARNING AREA, A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 31N39W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
26N52W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO 30W AND NORTH OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR
28N28W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOROCCO TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EVIDENT
FROM 20N AND 25N AND BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.
AGUIRRE
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