008
AXNT20 KNHC 020446
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON FEB 02 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD AND FOLLOWING AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO THE MONA PASSAGE
AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE SPEEDS BY MON MORNING. CURRENTLY SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF
18 TO 28 FT (5.5 TO 8.5 M) BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N AND W TO
NEAR 74W, EXCEPT W TO NEAR 78W N OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 8 TO 12
FT (2.5 TO 4 M) ARE W OF 74W TO THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO N OF THE
BAHAMAS W OF 78W. SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE 10 TO 14 FT (3 TO 4
M) E TO NEAR 55W AND N OF 28N. THESE SEA CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 12 FT AND 16 FT (4 TO 5 M) ON MON, THEN TO 8
TO 10 FT (2.5 TO 3 M) ON TUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W. AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N19W. WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 02N30W TO 01N40W AND TO NORTHERN BRAZIL AT 01S48W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29N94W,
AND A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. SEAS ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH SE OF A LINE FROM 27N84W TO 25N90W AND 19N95W. WHERE
THEY RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT (2.5 TO 4 M) IN NW TO N SWELL. THE
HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE FOUND NEAR AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SEAS TO THE NW OF THIS SAME LINE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
N TO NE SWELL, EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE THE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE FAR NW
GULF.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF S OF 28N AND E OF ABOUT 89W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LIGHT
RAIN PATCHES AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN S OF ABOUT 24N AND W OF 94W. THESE
CLOUDS EXTEND TO INLAND MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS THAT AREA SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WILL SUBSIDE BY MON MORNING. AFTERWARD, A HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. FOR THE WESTERN GULF, A PERIOD OF FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MON EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF ON WED, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO, CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 11N77W.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE
FRONT TO NEAR 84W WHILE FRESH WINDS ARE WEST OF 84W. SEAS TO 12 FT
ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE E OF FRONT S OF 14N AND 70W, AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE WINDS ARE N OF 14N AND E OF 70W. SEAS ARE
4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT N OF
15N, AND ALSO S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MON, WILL STALL FROM THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING. ON THU, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS THERE TOWARD THE NEXT WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
GALE WARNING FOR SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
31N18W AND CONTINUE TO 27N30W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 26N36W.
MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 30W AND
N OF 28N. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 10 FT (2 TO 3 M) IN NW
SWELL WITH THESE WINDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
BASIN IS BASICALLY CONTROLLED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED N
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N37W. ITS RELATED GRADIENT IS GENERALLY
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY FRESH TRADES TO EXIST S OF 24N AND E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT (2.5 TO 3 M)
IN NE TO E SWELL OVER THIS AREA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES INDICATE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT ROUGH SEAS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM 25N TO 28N E OF 51W
TO VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES
OUTLOOK ON SEAS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED TO COLD FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST ON THU, RESULTING IN BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF
25N THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN
CAUTIOUS THROUGH MON, AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
AGUIRRE
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