001
AXNT20 KNHC 021737
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON FEB 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N54W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PUERTO
RICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN N TO NW SWELL COVER THE NORTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ARE
NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. PEAK SEAS OF 18 TO
24 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 71W THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY
THU MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N19W TO 01N36W TO
01.5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO
06N EAST OF 24W, AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N92.5W,
AND RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF, WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS NOTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS IN
THIS REGION RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO NE WINDS
AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF 88W,
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN
THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE NE GULF TONIGHT ALLOWING A FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING THROUGH
THE PASSAGES. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS
OVER 8 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12
TO 13 FT NOTED OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE AND 3 TO
5 FT SEAS PREVAIL. TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, ROUGH SEAS
IN E SWELL ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IS HELPING
TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH
TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOWING THE FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO
THE E AS A HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF AREA. ON THU, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N54W
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PUERTO RICO, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOW STRONG TO NEAR-GALE S TO SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 25N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
W TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE, A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30.5N33.5W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OPEN ATLANTIC,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, GENERALLY SOUTH OF 22.5N. SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT IN E SWELL PREVAIL IN THIS REGION. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. FARTHER EAST, A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST AFRICA, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N. ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT
NOTED NORTH OF 30N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NORTH PART OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N
LATE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS THROUGH TODAY AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
ADAMS
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