389
AXNT20 KNHC 030621
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 00Z UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH 31N. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO
18 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC, BETWEEN 48W
AND 73E. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST-NROTHEASWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN TUE THROUGH WED, THE NW SWELL CAN
STILL PRODUCE 12 TO 15 FT SEAS IN BOTH BASINS. BY THU NIGHT, THE
SWELL SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF 35W AND NORTH OF 31N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS AT
WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE BISSAU COAST NEAR
CONAKRY, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 05N18W TO 01N43W TO NORTH OF BELEM,
BRAZIL AT 01N43W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 04N AND EAST OF 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1030 MB HIGH TO
NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT EXIST AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SSA PREVAIL AT THE
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SSE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE GULF
TONIGHT ALLOWING A FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY WED
MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THU
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
GULF AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM PUERTO RICO TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHERE IT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PART
OF THE WESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO
5 FT DOMINATE THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
E AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE, REACHING THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
BASIN, REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE WEAKENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO
21N63W WHERE IT THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N, WITH SIMILAR WINDS
SOUTH OF 20N INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES.
VERY ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ROUGH SEAS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE NORTH OF 28N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE EAST,
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF MOROCCO AT 25N15W TO 25N32W. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1024 MB DOMINATES IN THE WAKE AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE OPEN WATERS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH NW SWELL COVERS THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9
FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS INCLUDING ACROSS THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NORTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE
THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N LATE ON WED AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
CHAN
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