752
AXNT20 KNHC 031054
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N48W TO JUST NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N65W WHERE IT STALLS AND CONTINUES SW TO NW COLOMBIA. LARGE NW
SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO 16 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC, BETWEEN 42W AND 71W. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND NW AFRICA THU EVENING. LARGE LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 12 TO
15 FT SEAS, AFFECTING THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH SAT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
10N13W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 05N17W TO 02N28W TO 01N41W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 00N TO 07N
BETWEEN 04W AND 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH TO
NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE GRADIENT
OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N TEXAS AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
OVER THE SE GULF AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF REGION THROUGH THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LA MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA WHERE IT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NNE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, AFFECTING BOTH LA MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E HONDURAS. IN THE
SE CARIBBEAN, TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE E AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY, REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU, BRINGING FRESH TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE BASIN, REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE WEAKENING. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL IMPROVE SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 20N65W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT, IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE FOUND IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEVOID OF CONVECTION. OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE
TO FRESH FROM THE NE TO E AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO ROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NORTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT N LATE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY FRI MORNING AND MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SUN.
RAMOS
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