766
AXNT20 KNHC 031729
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE FEB 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N46W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO ABOUT
70W. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING 12 TO 16 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC, BETWEEN 40W AND 70W
AND N OF 24N. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, REACHING NW AFRICA THU EVENING. LARGE LONG-
PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
12 TO 15 FT SEAS, AFFECTING THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST
NEAR 08N13W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 04N20W TO 01S47W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 00N TO 07N AND
E OF 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1029 MB HIGH TO
NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE GRADIENT
OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N TEXAS AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA
DOMINATES THE GULF REGION SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE SE AND SW PARTS OF THE
GULF. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY
WED MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH
LATE THU. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
GULF AREA FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NW GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT TO ABOUT 60W, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH 6-9 FT SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E HONDURAS. IN
THE SE CARIBBEAN, TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS OF 3-6
FT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE COLOMBIA LOW, AND IS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WHERE IT IS HELPING
TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE E AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT, REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON
WED. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN,
REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WHILE WEAKENING. ON SAT, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PERSIST
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 20N65W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE, ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO N OF
15N BETWEEN 38W AND 74W. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE COASTAL BORDER OF MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO NEAR
23N35W. ROUGH SEAS ARE ANALYZED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND E OF 32W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEVOID OF CONVECTION. OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE
TO FRESH FROM THE NE TO E AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO ROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. VERY ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL, ARE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE NORTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N
LATE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY FRI MORNING,
AND FROM 25N55W TO PUERTO RICO ON SAT.
ADAMS
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