194
AXNT20 KNHC 032052
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT REACHES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N45W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
PRODUCING 12 TO 17 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 39W AND 65W. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, REACHING NW
AFRICA THU EVENING. LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 12 TO 15 FT SEAS, AFFECTING THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SAT, BUT SUBSIDING
WEST OF 35W FRI NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST
NEAR 08.5N13W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04.5N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 04.5N21W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 02.5S44.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR AND
EAST OF 34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA DOMINATES THE
GULF REGION SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO
SE WINDS ACROSS THE SE AND SW PARTS OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE SLIGHT OVER THE NE AND
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF, AND MODERATE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE BASIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH LATE THU. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AREA FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WHERE IT IS HELPING TO INDUCE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO 80W, INCLUDING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD, MONA, AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
ARE NOTED WEST OF 80W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH
NEAR AND IN ANY ATLANTIC PASSAGES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
FROM THE COLOMBIA LOW, AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE E AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON WED, AND REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU, AND WILL MERGE WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE.
THE NEW FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN, REACHING FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. BY SAT MORNING, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE NICARAGUA,
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
25N, WITH SIMILAR WINDS SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THE ATLANTIC TO
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. VERY ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, WITH ROUGH
SEAS ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 78W, AND ALSO JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AT
21N16.5W TO 23N35W WITH 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE NEAR
27N28W. WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, HOWEVER ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 17N AND EAST OF 35W, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH NORTH OF 27N AND
EAST OF 21W. SEAS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE
FOUND NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 21N AND EAST OF
40W, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS UNDER RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NORTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT N LATE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY FRI
MORNING, AND FROM 25N55W TO PUERTO RICO ON SAT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 29N THU NIGHT AND FRI. STRONG LOW PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE N
WATERS E OF 70W SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
LEWITSKY
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